Tampa, where I currently live, officially had its hottest year on record in 2023, according to numbers released by the National Weather Service. The NWS recorded an average temperature from 1/1/2023 to 12/28/2023 of 76.6 degrees Fahrenheit. That’s 0.2 degrees hotter than the previous record for the hottest year set in 2022 at 76.4 degrees. It was oven hot this past summer and my family did not even want to venture outside to the swimming pool.
As reported in the Climate Journal, the earth is heating up fast. Global temperatures could rise 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2029, according to a new study published in Nature Communications. This is 10 years earlier than previous estimates.
In 2015, the Paris Agreement set out to limit global warming to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to curb it to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. This 1.5°C limit was chosen because scientists determined it is a critical threshold for dangerous climate change impacts. Even half a degree above 1.5°C could worsen heatwaves, droughts, floods, and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report in 2018 outlined the severe consequences of crossing the 1.5°C global warming limit. According to the IPCC report, breaching the 1.5°C threshold could bring catastrophic changes, including:
- Sea level rise—Sea levels could be 10cm higher at 2°C vs 1.5°C. This could displace an additional 10 million people.
- Extreme heat—There could be longer, more frequent, and more intense heatwaves if we surpass 1.5°C.
- Drought and food insecurity—Increased droughts could negatively impact crop yields, livestock, and water supply.
- Biodiversity loss—Coral reefs could decline by 70 to 90 percent at 1.5°C. At 2°C, virtually all coral reefs would be lost.
- Economic costs—Damages from climate change could be two to three times higher at 2°C vs 1.5°C. The costs of adaptation alone could reach $280 billion at 1.5°C and $500 billion at 2°C.
Scientists warn that every extra 0.5°C temperature rise will worsen these impacts. Some are concerned we’ll hit a tipping point of uncontrolled climate impacts if temperatures increase beyond 1.5°C.
In the most comprehensive study on near-term global warming projections to date, researchers predict we could breach the 1.5°C limit as early as 2029. The study used improved models accounting for updated data on greenhouse gas emissions and assessments of climate sensitivity. It predicts:
- A 50 percent chance global warming will hit 1.5°C between 2028 to 2032;
- A 90 percent chance warming will surpass 1.5°C between 2026 to 2042; and
- A 95 percent chance warming will exceed 1.5°C between 2024 to 2050.
In all scenarios, global temperatures are projected to cross the 1.5°C limit in the next 10 to 30 years.
Previously, scientists estimated we had until 2040 before exceeding 1.5°C. But this new research using updated methodology shows the earth is heating faster than expected.
The authors of the study emphasize we can still limit warming to 1.5°C—but we must act immediately and ambitiously. Here are some actions individuals and policymakers can take:
Individuals
- Drive less by walking, biking, carpooling or taking public transport;
- Cut air travel and opt for staycations instead of long flights;
- Switch to a renewable energy provider and upgrade appliances to energy efficient models;
- Eat less meat and dairy, choose local produce, and reduce food waste; and
- Call/email leaders to demand climate action.
Policymakers
- Rapidly phase out fossil fuels for renewable energy like solar and wind power;
- End fossil fuel subsidies and put a rising price on carbon emissions;
- Protect forests and improve land use to absorb more carbon;
- Invest in climate adaptation measures for communities; and
- Collaborate internationally to coordinate ambitious emissions cuts.
According to Climate Journal, with concerted effort, we can still curb emissions to avoid the worst climate change impacts. But there is no time to delay. Each fraction of a degree matters, so 1.5°C must remain the maximum limit for global warming.Ear
