WASHINGTON, D.C.—When light-emitting diodes (LEDs) were first introduced in the mid-2000s for general space lighting, they were considered a disappointment. Almost too dim to be useful, they were expensive and no more efficient than traditional fluorescent technology. Today, LED-based lighting products can successfully compete with rival technologies on the basis of light quality, efficiency, dimmability, and almost any other important metric except for price—which is falling rapidly. According to a recent report from Navigant Research, revenues from LED lighting products (including lamps and luminaires) in commercial building markets will grow from $2.7 billion in 2013 to more than $25 billion in 2021.
“The rise of LED technology will transform every part of the commercial lighting industry,” says Jesse Foote, research analyst at Navigant Research. “While other lighting technologies have limited potential for future improvements, new designs for LEDs that push quality and efficacy to new levels continue to emerge from lighting labs around the world.”
In the coming years, LED prices are expected to fall to a point where savings from electricity consumption will provide a short payback period that will encourage consumer adoption en masse, according to the report. This shift will be most dramatic in the share of lamps sold for retrofit projects, where older lighting is often replaced specifically to improve efficiency. Although Navigant Research forecasts that only 5 percent of lamps sold to retrofit projects worldwide in 2013 will be LED-based, that share is expected to grow to 40 percent by 2017 and 63 percent by 2021.
The report, “Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets,” examines the worldwide market for energy-efficient lighting in commercial buildings, including LED, fluorescent, halogen, and high-intensity discharge lamps and luminaires. The report details the market drivers for these technologies, including electricity costs, green building certifications, and improved controls, as well as the remaining barriers to adoption. Profiles of leading industry players are provided, along with global forecasts for unit shipments and revenue through 2021, segmented by region and by lamp type. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.
Go to Navigant Research.
